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Monday, November 19, 2018

Good morning, and welcome to sharptrader. We’re celebrating our brand new academy site, so don’t forget to check it out. Meanwhile, here’s this week’s first market view.

US

Markets have been slightly optimistic since US president trump’s Friday comments that expect a trade deal with China eventually. More gloom though was evinced when vice pence later said there would be no end to tariffs until China changes its ways. The dow on Friday closed up ½%, the S&P ¼ and the Nasdaq lost .15 of a %. Industrial production fell by half to 1/10th% – all this as Thursday’s jobless claims increase still casts a slight shadow.

Asia

In Asia overnight, we’re seeing a merchandise trade DEFICIT in Japan of nearly 450bn yen, after September;s 131bn surplus. Central bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda this morning warned that regional banks were losing money. Kuroda was addressing the Eurogroup economic forum in Paris on the topic of declining and aging populations – something Japan is unwilling to address by increasing immigration quotas. Indeed, Kuroda didn’t even MENTION his country’s abysmal record on that topic.

Europe

The Eurozone published its highest CPIs since December 2012 on Friday. ALSO speaking at Eurogroup, ECB head Mario Draghi admitted that economic growth was slowing, but not to the point that has him worried as yet. House prices in the UK contracted in November by 1.7% month on month, as the final destiny of Brexit approaches towards the end of this week. The pound overnight resumed an upward haul, but as of this morning it has yet to regain half of Thursday’s dramatic plunge.

Commodities

In commodities, oil showed a slight drop after Friday’s baker hughes report – a 2 rig increase which was nowhere near as dramatic as last week’s 14. And gold, which performed a $20 jump on Friday, has erased half of those gains, especially in Asia overnight.

Events

Today’s calendar is rather sparse. More numbers from the EU at 10 am GMT, and US housing at 3 PM. At a half past midnight we’ll be getting the minutes of Australia’s recent central bank meeting and at 2 – Japan’s monetary policy statement.
We’ll be back again tomorrow. Enjoy and good trading.

Monday, November 15, 2018

Good morning, and welcome to Market View. It’s Thursday, November 15th.

Europe

We have a deal, says the UK government, unless parliament rules it out, after Theresa May’s Brexit agreement with the EU was approved yesterday. 2 ministers have reportedly resigned, and European indexes are suffering cloudy futures. The agreement has border checks for goods crossing from England to Northern Ireland and the European court of justice controlling arbitration during the 2-year transition period. Retail prices grew by 1/10%, producer inflation by 1/3 and the consumer price index remained steady at 0.1% in October. Across the waters, European GDP grew by a paltry 1/5 % in Q3 while industrial production contracted by a 1/3% month-on-month. Germany’s GDP crashed, contracting for the first time in 3 years by3.2% for the quarter.

US

Consumer inflation in the US added 1/5% climbing by 2.5% year on year, but mortgage applications dropped to an 18-year low by 3.2%. Fed head Jerome Powell yesterday told members of the Dallas central bank that he had no intention of changing the gradual interest rate increase policy of his bank, and that he was content with the state of the economy.

Asia

Meanwhile, China delivered a hand-written response to US reform demands, this ahead of the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting at the G-20 meeting in Argentina. According to Bloomberg, there is little mention of intellectual property threat and the concessions proposed on equities and fiscal matters fall short of being what the Americans define as substantial. Further south, Australia’s unemployment remains steady at 5%, while consumer inflation fell to 3.6% for November. While in Japan foreign investments grew by 100 bn yen after contracting by 356bn the month before, while housing loans added 2.4% in Q3

Commodities

Gold during the Asian session added $15 per troy ounce after exploring the sub-12-00 domain throughout the day; and oil peaked at 57 and a bit despite the API’s 8.8-million-barrel increase, before dropping again to the mid 56’ess.

Events

Coming back to the UK, in a couple of hours, we’ll be getting retail sales data with Europe’s trade balance in at 10. US retail sales, jobless claims and import/export prices will be in at 1:30 PM, and New Zealand’s business PMI at 9:30.

We’ll be back tomorrow with more economic news. Until then, happy trading. 

 

Monday, November 14, 2018

Good morning,

 

Asia

The Yen overnight lost another .04% after the nation posted a 0.3% reduction in GDP for Q3, while industrial production beat expectations with a mere ½% drop in September. In China, retail sales are down by more than a percent, while industrial production and fixed asset investments increased by 5.9 and 5.7% respectively. Meanwhile, Australian consumers are showing optimism, as last night’s Westpac index nearly tripled this month over October.

Europe

In the UK, the pound surged by over a /13% on news that of an agreed upon Brexit deal. The 2 sides have reportedly ironed out differences on the hard Irish border issue, and now the paper needs to be approved by the house of commons. Earnings ALSO pushed the currency with a .1% rise to 3.2 in September (that’s its highest level since the 2008 meltdown) but unemployment is up by a 1/10 to 4.1%. Along the continent, news isn’t as good, with economic sentiment down to minus 22 in the EU and minus 24.1 in Germany – the latter beating expectations, however, while consumer inflation remains steady at 2.4% year-on-year.

 

US

Finally reacting to the news, US business optimism fell in October to 107.4, while yesterday’s budget statement showing a $100bn deficit, following last month’s 119bn surplus. Equities continue south as oil prices continue to drop, threatening the feasibility of shale production. Weighing on markets yesterday were Amazon and Apple stocks, the latter hit by sales pessimism to the tune of a 5% share drop in a single day. General electric lost nearly 7%, yesterday, which translates to about $5bn in market cap

 

Commodities

Gold continues sideways this morning above the 12-00 mark on dollar weakness and continued red in US equities.

And crude oil for now remains steady in the 55-30 region.

Events

Still ahead today, Britain’s producer and consumer inflation figures plus retail prices at 9:30 GMT. That’ll be followed a half hour later by the EU’s GDP, industrial production and employment change. At 1:30 – CPIs and the Redbook index from the US, and at 9:30, the APi’s weekly crude oil inventories. – we’re a day late due to Monday’s Veteran’s Day holiday in the US. Foreign investment from japan is in at 10 to midnight, and at ½ past the following morning – Australian employment data.

Don’t forget to call your account manager for advice and assistance. And don’t forget to have a great trading day.

 

Monday, November 13, 2018

Good morning, it’s Tuesday November 13 and this is sharptrader.

Asia

Chinese indicators closed up this morning led by the Shenzhen’s 1.7% increase. News in Japan was not as good, the Nikkei down 2.11% and the yen reacting downward on a 1.1% reduction in machine tool orders. That’s its first drop since November 2016.

Europe

The pound performed a near dead-man’s bounce last night after opening with a 60 pip bear gap yesterday. Consumers are cutting down spending iin the UK, according to Visa’s credit report this morning. Hard Brexit fear sustain, while across the channel concerns over Italy’s budget deficit join an economic slowdown threatening the Euro as it threatens the 1-12-00 mark.

US

The US Dollar continues to strengthen, hitting its highest since June last year and continuing to threaten dependant emerging markets. Stocks meanwhile are down, the Nasdaq printing a 2.8% loss yesterday as a New York financial consultancy reports that Wall Street professionals are in for a 20% increase in bonuses this year over 2017. And as we move into commodities, the EIA reported yesterday in its annual report that US shale production will push that nation’s output to a half of the world’s total by 2025.

Commodities

In spite of that, Oil lost yesterday’s gains during the Asian session after adding a dollar and a ½. The culprit: Saudi Arabia’s announcement it was cutting production next month. This continues the 6-week downward trend since the liquid gold topped 76 in October. And the HARDER metal continues down on a strengthening dollar. This morning finds gold still struggling in its 3-month support region after bouncing off of the 12-00 mark last night.

Events

Today’s events scene begins at 9:30 GMT with England’s unemployment figures for September. That’s followed by german economic sentiment at 10 and business optimism from the US at 11. At 9 PM the US treasury releases its monthly budget statement, and at 11:50 – Japan’s GDP.

We’ll be back tomorrow with more. See you then.

Monday, October 8, 2018

Good morning, and welcome to our Monday edition market view.

Asia

With Columbus day in the US, and National Health sports day in Japan coming on the heels of last week’s Chinese bank holiday, markets are opening relatively quietly, but all mainly deep in the red. We’re seeing an excellent PMI this morning from the government’s Caixin service, but last week’s spy-chip revelations could have a lasting impact on China’s high-tech export industry. Western manufacturers have discovered that boards manufactured in China contain a chip that creates a doorway into their companies and even defence equipment. Also, the nation’s central bank announced yesterday that it would once again cut its required reserve ratio, in effect pumping another trillion plus yuans into trade-war infested markets.

Europe

Despite an apparent agreement on Italy’s budget deficit ratio, this morning we’re seeing the commission warning of a Greece-style crisis. Senior officials are claiming that the Italians will be in breach of EU fiscal regulations should the 2.1% ratio – down from 2.4 – be ratified. For now, Italians seem content to remain within the Euro-zone, but with a populist party in power, an exit is not unforeseeable. Germany’s industrial production contracted another 0.3% in August month on month, and we’re expecting a slight drop in both EU investor confidence and UK like-for-like retail sales.

US

The US dollar surge came to an end on Friday after the NFP brought in precisely HALF the number of jobs expected – 135k instead of 270. Still, unemployment dropped another 2 ticks to 3.7% – a 50 year low – and consumer confidence rose by $4 bn  to 20 and a bit. We’re expecting the dollar to continue ranging for the next month or so until mid-term elections decide if the US ends up with another  divided congress, or whether the Kavanaugh scandal will prompt a democrat take-over.

Commodities

Oil continues to suffer from last week’s profit-taking, despite a 2-rig reduction in the baker hughes count, Friday. It’s now down nearly $3 from Thursday’s $77 high. For now, it seems that Saudi Arabia has agreed to top off the Iranian shortfall. And gold in the Asian session was drummed back down to its short term range, at 11-99 and 99 cents.

That’s it for this morning. Have a great trading day, and don’t forget to call your broker – it’s what he’s there for.

 

Thursday, October 4, 2018

Good morning and welcome to sharptrader. It’s Thursday and we’re here with another market view.

Europe

The spotlight is still on Italy, whose budget is pressuring the entire continent downward. With the Eu trying to convince Italy to cut its CURRENT budget deficit of 1.6%, it stands to reason that nobody’s going to approve the proposed 2.4% of GDP. Meanwhile, Italy’s services PMI in September added half a point beyond expectations to 53.3, while yesterday’s composite and services figures for Germany and the Eu came in red. Yesterday’s DAX lost point 42 of a % and the Eurostoxx point 7-3.  The FTSE and CAC managed a ½% gain, but both the euro and pound continue fighting an uphill battle against the US dollar downwards. The pound is especially fragile following Theresa may’s performance on yesterday.

US

Us growth is steamrolling forward, last night’s ISM figures at a 21-year high of 61 & a ½. The new orders sub-component shows a healthy increase in demand, business is up and so is employment. Markit’s PMIs also came in a half point higher than expected; but mortgage applications came in at a flat 0. Meanwhile, JP Morgan chase analysts accuse FED head Jerome Powell of costing US equities about a trillion and a ½ dollars thanks to his worrisome speeches on the economy.

Asia

The US’s galloping dollar comes at the expense of its Japanese counterpart, the yen at an 11-month low, for the moment. The Bank of Japan’s periodical market survey reflects frustration at reaching a 2% inflation goal, following yesterday’s 1.6 point miss of the expected September services PMI. Up next – trade talks with trump, basking in the success of his nafta-2 talks with Canada and Mexico.

Commodities

In oil markets, last night’s 8 mn barrel inventories growth caused an understated ripple, forcing prices down by ½ a dollar, following the dollar.80 spike after Tuesday’s API report. With prices at a 4-year high, US’s sanctions on Iranian output, alongside OPEC’s refusal to plug the gap, still has the bulls by the horns.

Events

Most important data today will be coming from the US from noon and a half – that’s jobless claims followed by factory orders. Japan’s household Spending data will be in at 30 to midnight and retail sales from Australia – an hour later.

Come back tomorrow for our Friday edition. And in the meantime – have a great trading day.

Tuesday, October 2, 2018

Good morning and welcome to Sharptrader. Here’s the market view for Tuesday October 2nd.

Europe

Markets are expressing some optimism so far this week, as Brexit seems to be offering a compromise and the EU has yet to respond to Italy’s budget deficit. Helping things along was yesterday’s unemployment number from the roman capital – a ½% drop to 9.7%, which helped edge the zone’s total down a 1/10 of a % to 8.1. Manufacturing PMIs were not much to write home about, except in Britain, where the index rose by point 8 of a % alongside mortgage approvals – also a ½ kilo increase to 66 ½ K, and – this morning – housing prices – a 0.3$ increase month-on month in September which follows last month’s ½% drop. The pound spiked momentarily yesterday as rumours spread of a Brexit compromise on the Irish border question. The currency is back into an easy bear.

US

US data yesterday came in mostly red, the ISM’s manufacturing PMI down a point and a half to 59.8 and construction spending down by a half to 0.1%. The US dollar continues upwards on the basis of Sunday’s new NAFTA agreement. So far, the word innovation is not on anyone’s lips. Most of the concessions on both the US and Canadian side were expected – medical patents, rules of origin and dairy markets have been eased. The Canadian dollar was less egregious overnight, after performing a pretty impressive 160 pip jump on Monday. Next on the agenda: US-Europe trade disputes. At stake – about one trillion dollars of trade being threatened by the US demand for upholding sanctions against Iran, which Europe is tyring to resist.

Asia

With china still on vacation, Australia overnight chose to maintain its 1.5% interest rate, and consumer confidence in Japan came in this morning at 43.4 – a 1/10 increase on August. The New York Times on Friday reported that the Chinese government has sent memos to journalists aimed at underplaying any economic troubles. The nation’s stock markets are at a 4-year low, industrial profits are falling, and homeowners are protesting the drop in real estate values.

Commodities

Oil overnight surged by another 3% to 75-60 this morning, with Brent easing off at the 85 mark. And gold is back into an upward trend whose future most probably depends on today’s US data and rising US-china tensions that seem to be infiltrating into security matters. China yesterday cancelled a meeting with US military officials and warships in the south china see are getting a tad aggressive.

Events

Still ahead today, construction in the UK at 8:30 GMT followed at 9 by the eurozone’s producer price index for august. The Redbook is in at 5 to 1 and the API’s oil count at 8:30 tonight. At 1 am, we’ll be seeing Japan’s services PMI and at 1:30 building permits in Australia.

We’ll see you again tomorrow, same place, same time. happy trading. 

 

Monday, October 1 , 2018

Good morning. It’s Monday October 1st and here’s the market view from SharpTrader.

Asia

Chinese markets are on holiday this morning after the nation’s bureau of statistics on Sunday saw manufacturing plummet by half a point. Bloomberg reports that officials are promising tax cuts and infrastructure spending to offset the effects of trade tensions and rising unemployment. Japan’s Tankan index also fell by 2 points, while the Nikkei count is down only a half. the result – a 1/3% drop in the Nikkei PMI with a corresponding rise in this morning Nikkei 225.

Europe

After the poor performance of UK GDP and EuroZone PMIs, Friday’s equities ended in the red throughout the region led by Italy’s FTSE index – down 3.7%. The euro continued downwards after the Italian government ratified a 2.4% budget deficit – way above the EU’s limit. Meanwhile, Princeton’s Ashoka Modi writing in Marketwatch says that the ECB’s bond buying program is a farce and that growth in the union is slowing. He accuses ECB president Mario Draghi of untruthful rhetoric and says the zone’s monetary leadership are way behind the US and Asian markets in withdrawing stimulus.

Americas

In the americas nafta is dead, and it’s long live the US Mexico Canada agreement – USMCA. The new multilateral trade agreement was agreed upon towards midnight last night and it’s supposed to be signed in November. All 3 coins gained on the release, after Canada’s PM Trudeau said it was a good day for canada, which is expected to open 3.5% of its dairy market to the US. Last week ended with the chicago and michigan indexes both down, and spending indexes also in the red.

Commodities

With oil still steadily rising, Saudi Arabia has put on hold, for now, its planned $200 bn solar power plans. The Saudi government said it would be presenting a broader strategy for renewable energy later this month.

Shares

in equities, Of course the BIG news is Elon musk’s settlement with the securities exchange commission that he would step down as chairman while retaining his position as company CEO. After floating rumors of a buyback on Tesla stocks, musk will still have to pay a $40mn fine to settle fraud charges. Tesla is on the verge of profitability, musk told employees, just ahead of yesterday’s end to the year’s 3rd quarter. And across the seas nearly a month after declaring he was retiring, Alibaba’s Jack Ma has already surrendered ownership in the conglomerate’s Chinese licensed entities.

Events

After Germany report of retail figures this morning, we have Markit’s manufacturing PMIs coming in throughout the day interspersed with unemployment from italy at 8 am GMT and mortgages and consumer credit from the UK at 8:30. Overnight, New Zealand reports inflation and at 4:30 tomorrow morning – Australia’s interest rate decision.

We’ll see you again later tomorrow. Have a great trading week.

Friday, September 28, 2018

Good morning and welcome to the end of another week of market views. It’s Friday September 28, and we’re Sharptrader.

Asia

A rally yesterday across the Asian equities board has the Australian and New Zealand Dollar’s up this morning. The optimism was triggered by reports that global liquidity provider, MSCI was planning to increase its investments in Chinese A-shares – this despite the Asian Development bank’s lowering of China’s growth projections by a 1/10 of a % to 6.3. Japan’s ShinzoAbe, after meeting with US president trump, informed reporters that there was no free trade agreement in the works – only a lesser form on goods.

Europe

European indexes also ended mostly up last night, the euro down on Italy’s intention to push through a higher budgetary deficit to fund election promises. Across the Union, confidence measures were down yesterday, except in Italy, where both business and consumer sentiment increased by about a point each. Germany’s CPIs came in better than expected, 2.3% year on year for September. And Jeremy Corbin is in Brussels, begging for an orderly Brexit deal for the sake of British jobs and living standards.

N. America

The dollar continues to strengthen on Wednesday’s FOMC policy announcement. We’re expecting another hike in December and at least 3 more in 2019. The unexpected hawkishness accompanied the 3.3% increase in GDP, also saw all 3 major indexes in the green at the end of trading yesterday. Inventories and home sales were down and the goods trade deficit increased; however, jobless claims and personal consumption rose. The WTO yesterday warned that escalating trade tensions could lower global trade volumes in 2018 from 4.4% to 3.9.

Commodities

Oil this morning remains in an uptrend, WTI at 72.26 and Brent just starting to resist at 81.41. And gold is still reeling from Wednesday’s FOMC sentiments – resolutely below 11-88. Bitcoin took a $300 leap up yesterday after J.P.Morgan announced the world’s largest blockchain application that enables cross-border payments. The new Quorum blockchain actually uses ethereum

Events

Still ahead, CPIs from france and GDP from spain towards 7 am gmt.later in the day, CPIs from Italy and the eu. At 8, we’ll hear about unemployment in germany followed by the UK’s GDP figures for Q2 and Spain’s at 10. The us begins reporting at noon and a 1/2 with personal consumption followed by Chicago’s PMI. Finally, Baker Hughes’ rig count is at 5.

 

We’ll be back again Monday to start you off on another week of market views. Have a lovely weekend.

Thursday, September 27, 2018

Good morning, The day’s beginning in the red, the world has recovered from trump’s un speech and we’re here for another market view from sharptrader.

Asia

All major Asian indexes closed in the red this morning, with the yen gathering strength throughout the session. Resistance at 89-28 is mainly holding for now, but the mood is sombre. Yesterday, the Asian development bank warned that regional growth could be hampered by disrupted supply chains, this before trump’s tariffs have even been factored in. And speaking of tariffs, China overnight announced it would be lowering tariffs on a series of imports by about 2%.

Europe

Both the euro and the pound sterling are in freefall this morning, having lost ½ a % since trading began. And about 90 pips since yesterday’s close. Mortgage approvals in the UK eased by 300K, but german consumer confidence is up a 1/10 of a point. More news in Europe is coming from Italy, this morning, where consumer and business confidence surprised to the upside and the deficit is expected to come in just below the EU’s 3% limit. 

US

Home sales in the US rebounded month on month by 3/5% in August, but the number missed analyst targets by about a thousand units. Other than that, the FED raised interest rates by a ¼%, as expected, giving the dollar a long-hoped for boost of about 60 cents on the dollar index. The currency soared through the $94 resistance and is currently contemplating 94-20. Meanwhile, Donald trump says he may reach out to China’s Xi jingping, but ruled out a 1-on-1 with canada’s Justine Trudeau.

Commodities

Despite a 1.8mn barrel increase in oil stocks, the commodity continues rising – 50 cents on the EIA’s pronouncement last night. And gold once again reversed its downtrend during the Asian session. It’s currently just above the 12-00 handle and slowly rising.

Events

We’re getting Italy’s producer inflation and the EU’s sentiment markers as we go to air right now. With CPIs from Germany expected at noon. At ½ past noon, the US will blitz us with jobless claims, GDP, consumption and durable goods orders. Home sales in an hour and a half later. At 11:30 tonight, it’s japan’s turn to publish CPIs, employment, production, retail and investment data. And China’s kaishin manufacturing PMI will be in at a ¼ to 2 in the morning.

We’’ll be back again tomorrow morning. Till then, have a wonderful trading day.

 

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Good morning. Welcome to the market view from sharptrader, Wednesday September 26.

Asia

After Friday’s HKDollar surge, stocks on the Hang Seng continue to recover from Monday’s reaction. On Friday the dollar rose by a 15 year record. Meanwhile business confidence in New Zealand was up, but it’s still in negative terrotiry to the tune of 38 points – this, as last night’s trade deficit fell by ½ a bn dollars, but not enough to satisfy analysts.

Europe

European currencies remained steady overnight as Brexit recedes into the background after Benoit Coeure and Peter praet – both of the European central bank – failed to make headlines in their speeches yesterday. Stocks last night closed mostly in the green, led by the FTSe’s 2/3% increase – all mainly propped up by energy stocks..

US

With today’s rate hike already priced into the dollar, US equities continued downwards yesterday on oil-induced inflation and higher bond yields. Cas Shiller presented a 5.9% increase in home prices, down a percent-50 from June, and same store sales increased by a marginal 0.4%  to 5.8 year on year.

Commodities

Oil’s upward momentum was stymied last night when the American Petroleum Institute reported a 2.9mn barrel increase in inventories. Analysts are still bullish – at least until tonight’s EIA report. But optimism reigns – especially after Donald trump’s targeting of Iran in last night’s UN speech. As for gold – we’re still stuck in the 11-90 – 12-10 range – at least until tonight’s FOMC report. And bitcoin continues downwards despite a short-lived recovery last week. Yesterday Google lifted a ban on crypto advertising but said it was instating on certification from google to advertise within a specific geographical range.

 

Events

Still ahead today, mortgage approvals from the UK at 8:30, then from the US at 11. At 2:30, it’s the EIA’s turn to report on oil and at 6, the much awaited fed’s new interest rate. New Zealand ALSO presents an interest rate decision at 9 tonight, and overnight, OPEC meets to discuss production.

That’s it for now. Have a great trading day.

 

Tuesday, September 25, 2018

Good morning and welcome to Tuesday’s market view from sharptrader

Asia

Last night’s Bank of Japan policy report has the economy expanding moderately and annual inflation to rise above the 2% target unless US china friction increases. The Nikkei was the odd man out in last night’s negative closures thanks to a weakening Yen. It rose point 15 of a percent against a 2/3% loss for the shanghai and Shenzhen composites. Hong kong was down a percent point 62. And as US-Japan trade talks begin today, China’s commerce minister overnight said his government was considering zero tariffs on some products.

Europe

As Theresa may’s government gets ready for snap elections in November, Brexit minister Ra’ab remains confident a deal will come through. Meanwhile, more and more traders are shorting the pound, based on the latest CFTC reports, and yesterday’s CBI trends retreated to minus 1. Increasing the pressure, ECB hawkishness is raising expectations for an interest rate hike this month. Even Draghi is joining the chorus as inflation picks up. But, after Germany’s sentiment indexes ALSO declined yesterday for September and wholesale prices rose this morning, European indexes will have to work hard to recoup yesterday’s losses. These were led by the DAX’s 0.64% drop followed by the FTS’s point 4-2.

US

After trump signed the first negotiated trade agreement with south korea yesterday, the FOMC meeting tomorrow to determine its new interest rate. Analysts are expecting a tariff’s-induced slowdown in US growth as early as Q4. China is threatening to withdraw from talks, iran tensions are growing, and Brexit is getting messier – all contributing to a risk averse climate that’s driving up the dollar. Meanwhile, on the home front, Dalas’s manufacturing index was down 3 points and chicago’s national activity index remained flat at 0.18.

Commodities

Overnight, oil continued upwards as both Russia and Saudi Arabia ignore US president trump’s pleas for a production increase. 72 is WTI’s latest intraday support level, while gold is firmly parked above 12-03 at least until tomorrow’s FOMC meet.

Events

We’ll be hearing from several Eurobank officials throughout the day, peter prat at 1:30 PM GMT and benoit coeuree at 20 to 3. US house prices will be in at 1 and the API’s crude stocks at 8:30. At ¼ to 11, it’s new zealand’s trade balance, and the nation’s business confidence 2 hours later.

We’ll be back again tomorrow. Till then, happy trading. 

 

Thursday, September 20, 2018

Good morning, It’s Thursday and here’s the market view from sharptrader

Asia

Asian markets have been mostly ignoring trump’s latest round of trade tariffs against China, the shanghai composite down a 1/10 this morning, but the hang send and Nikkei following Europe and the US marginally up.  Although China is avoiding more aggressive solutions, such as boycotting US products and increasing the taxes on US companies operating on the mainland, it can easily up the ante by supporting local producers with more monetary stimulus and reducing corporate taxes. Southward bound, New Zealand presented its highest GDP estimate in 2 years for Q2. The whopping 2.8% increase pushed the dollar up by 40 pips within minutes of the announcement.

 

Europe

Britain’s inflation rose to a 6-month high in August, with retail prices up by nearly a percent, retail SALES up by a respectable 3.3, and july’s house prices by 3.1%. The pound itself has been relatively impervious to the latest Brexit developments, whether the failure of yesterday’s Austria meet to accept Theresa may’s chequers plan or whether her refusal to accept the EU;’s Irish border solution.

 

US

US indexes were mainly up yesterday, as New York’s state comptroller declared that Wall Street bankers got a 13% wage hike last year. The average wage now is over 420,000 – that’s the highest since the lehaman collapsed in 2008. Meanwhile, Housing starts are at a 3-month high, based yesterday’s 1.3mn figure for August. Mortgage applications increased by 1.6% after August’s 1.8% decline, but building permits declined by nearly 6%. The biggest gain in housing start, it’s interesting to note, is in multi-family construction – nearly 30%. Apparently, Americans are finding less and less reason to sit in their back yards or front porches.

 

Commodities

As the US dollar maintains a weak stance just above the 94 mark, gold continues to hesitantly climb towards the 12-10 region. And oil is responding to last night’s EIA report with another dollar-50 jump to above the 71 mark, even though last night’s drawdown was less than expected.

Events

Still ahead today – jobless claims from the US at 2pm GMT along with European consumer confidence. At 30 minutes to midnight, japan will report CPIs and foreign investments; and at 3 am tomorrow morning, New Zealand’s credit card spending.

We’ll be back tomorrow – till then, happy trading. 

 

Monday, September 17, 2018

Good morning, and welcome to another week of market views. I’m barry sadovsky and this is sharptrader.

Asia

Chinese indexes are down this morning as it seems quite likely that Donald trump’s tariffs on another $200bn of Chinese goods are a done thing. Optimism DOES glimmer in the form of a UN meeting tomorrow and the G20 in November, where Chinese and US counterparts are expected to talk on the sidelines. Meanwhile, house prices in China increased by 7%, a 2-year high that’s up from July’s 5.8. In Japan, industrial production Friday morning declined by 0.2% in July month-on-month, and the drop in the yen has the Nikkei up by 1.2%.

Europe

After Thursday’s 70 pip bull gap, the swiss franc hit a snag after credit suise was called out by international monitors over its failure to fight corruption and money laundering. Switzerland’s financial markets regulator, FINMA, has decided to install an independent monitor to oversee the bank’s compliance. And after Turkey hiked its interest rate from 17 to 24%, both the ECB and the bank of England stayed pat on Thursday, consolidating an upward trend in the pound, but breaking the newborn momentum in the Euro. The European central bank DID however mention in its policy report that it would start winding down its asset purchasing program next month, this as core inflation is expected to hit the 2% mark by 2020. PRESENT day  data is showing a narrowing of the eurozone’s trade surplus to 12bn euros in July.

 

US

The US dollar added some strength over the weekend despite quite mixed data on Friday. Retail sales fell to a 6-month low of 0.1%, industrial capacity at 78.1% just missed expectations and import prices declined by 0.6%. On the plus side, we have export prices up by 3.6% and production: 0.4%.    Expectations still abound for a rate hike by month’s end, and Canada is still deciding whether to join the NAFTA talks in light of a perceived softening of the US stance vis-à-vis China. .

Commodities

As trade talks optimism helped lift the dollar, gold forgot plans of recovering and is quite resolutely below the 12-00 mark again. Oil is back downward bound despite added Iranian sanctions, as the US tries to goad Russia into capping oil prices – this ahead of mid-term elections.

Events

At 9 this GMT morning the EU will be publishing consumer inflation. Then at noon and a half – new york’s empire state manufacturing index. Housing prices will be in from Australia at 1:30 tomorrow morning,

And we’ll be back again tomorrow, bright and early.

Have a great trading day.