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Thursday, December 6, 2018

Good morning, and welcome to Sharptrader. It’s Thursday December 6 and this is our view of financial markets.

US

US data was sparse yesterday owing to closed markets commemorating President Gearge Bush; and despite markets closing Tuesday down 3-4%, this morning’s index futures show no sign of relenting. Yesterday, after Donald trump had his exhuberant post handshake news of Chinese trade concessions bowled over by everyone else who was there, the US president fired of several warlike tweets threatening the middle kingdom with mayhem. The result – a dive in said futures to the tune of a percent minimum across the board, that pulled down the rest of the world with it. In other US news, Mortgage applications eased of by more than half to 2% in November. Canada is maintaining its 1.75% interest rate. It’s statement, though, warns of a downside risk to economic growth, which will probably be exacerbated by falling oil prices.

Asia

Chinese celphone manufacturer Huawei continues to be beleaguered by spying accusations, after the daughter of its founder was arrested in Canada yesterday. The news only helped to pressure stocks FURTHER down, the Hang Seng losing 2.6% over the session. Also, Japan’s central banker Haruhiko Kuroda told parliament overnight that Q3’s negative GDP growth was not in line with the country’s expanding economy, but assured speculators that he had no intention of raising interest rates or lower asset purchasing in the near future. In Australia, the local dollar declined on a disappointing trade surplus, down 600 million to 2.32 billion in October on 3% additional imports. These DECLINED in September, while retail sales added 0.3% in October. .

Europe

European retail failed to grow by the expected 2.1% in October, but still added 1.7% year on year. PMIs yesterday came in all green yesterday, except UK services which dropped 2 points to 50.4 in November – a 28-month low. With indications that Parliament will not push through Thersa May’s Brexit deal, expectations are for her to return to brussels in hopes of achieving more concessions. Meanwhile, in Germany factory orders added a paltry 1/3%, better than the expected 0.4 contraction, though, in light of continuing trade-war pessimism.

Commodities

Like yesterday, oil continues zigzagging in the 52-54 region despite the beginning of OPEC’s latest meeting in Vienna. Pundits are claiming that Saudi Arabia this week managed to pull Russia on board for further production cuts, despite the wishes of US President Donald trump. Gold reversed gains overnight, losing $5 on the ounze and bouncing off of support at 12-40.

Events

Still ahead today, US employment figures ahead of tomorrow’s NFP. At 1:30 canadian trade data, and a 2:45 US PMIs. At 3 we zigzag back to Canada fro ITS pmis, and at 2 am, foreign reserves in China.

We’ll be back in a week. Till then, trade safe and happy. 

 

Wednesday, December 5, 2018

Good morning, and welcome to all of our friends from across the world. Its Wednesday December 5th and this is the market view.

Asia

Japan’s service sector presented a lower PMI in November, down a click to 52.3 and schlepping the euro down with it. The yen rose steadily throughout the day, receding a 1/3 of the way as the Asian session got under way and is currently bouncing off a 2-week pressure zone in the 88-40 region. Indexes dropped sharply as investors began asking themselves what was in store vis-à-vis the post handshake period. What olive branches can the beleaguered Chinese economy afford to extend trump, that will postpone his tariffs beyond its new grace period? In an aside, the Caixin services PMI last night showed a 3 point improvement, placing it way into expansionist territory at 53.8.

 

Europe

The pound received a welcome jolt in the arm yesterday after the European court ruled that Britain can unilaterally halt the Brexit process at any time and with no immediate sanctions. Adding to the fanfare was an unexpected upswing in construction data – the pmi up a fifth of a point to a 4-month high. The joy was short-lived and the coin has lost all 50 pips it gained after Bank governor mark carney warned that a no-deal Brexit could cause a 10% increase in food prices OVER a 25% plunge in the UK pound. Across the region, indexes lost steam – also apparently on profit taking to the tune of a percent more or less across the board. PMis were up 4.9%, a point 3 percent improvement over October; and Italy has said that 2% is the lowest it can go on its budgetary deficit

 

US

The dollar this morning is up on equities crashing – the Nasdaq down 3.8% and the Dow 3.1. Investors Business Daily published a consumer sentiment downswing from 56.4 in November to 52.6 for this month. Fed members are showing some elasticity over a December rate hike, Jerome powell yesterday calling for patience and steve Kaplan suggesting data guidance, rather than abiding by a specific timetable.

 

Commodities

Gold hit a month-long high of 12-47 overnight before settling back to its new support level at 12-39. And oil continues trending sideways at 52 – 54 ahead of tomorrow’s OPEC Russia meeting, where a one million daily barrel production cut is expected to come into play. The API reported another 5.36 million barrel upswing in inventories.

Events

Ahead today, more PMIs from Europe with retail sales in at 10. US mortgage approvals will be in at noon followed by a Canadian interest rate decision at 3. At 10 to 12, Japan’s foreign investments, and Australia’s trade balance ends the day 40 minutes later.

We’ll be back again tomorrow. Have a great trading day.

 

Tuesday, December 4, 2018

Asia

Chinese indexes are reacting quite muted this morning following yesterday’s handshake exhuberance. The Nikkei lost 2½% as the yen added 50 pips to the dollar. Biggest losers in Tokyo include Nissan, Nintendo and  Kobe steel. Also early this morning, the Royal Bank of Australia maintained an even percent-5 as its interest rate decision,

Europe

More contention over the Brexit deal between Theresa May and parliament keeping the pound down despite favourable data yesterday. They’re demanding May reveal the full extent of the legal advice received vis-à-vis customs rules. The data – Manufacturing is up 2 full points, towering over the rest of the Union in November, and support at the 1-27 mark still holding strong. Otherwise, European indexes followed the rest of the world up yesterday, Italy’s FTSE disregarding the continued budget spat with the union and adding 2¼% and its UK counterpart – 1-18.

US

US indexes lst night ended up just over a percent, but futures this morning have given back nearly half the win. Meanwhile, t-bonds remain unimpressed with Sunday’s Trump-Xi embrace, losing point 0-15 on the 3 month yield and gaining a paltry point 0-2 on the 6. Yesterday’s manufacturing PMI is divided between a 1/10th point drop according to Markit but a point and a ½ INCREASE based on the ISM. Considering that over time, Markit’s survey enjoys a higher correlation to official figures, down is probably the way to go. Construction spending continues to contract, and vehicle sales are down 50 K – still, not as bad as expected.

Commodities

In commodities, we have oil currently entering a new range between 52 and $54 per barrel, gold peaking overnight at 12-42, and bitcoin losing another 5% leaving it back below the 4,000 mark.

Events

Ahead today, another speech from England’s Mark Carney at 9:15  GMT. At 10, PPIs for the EU, and at 5 to 2, the Redbook index. The API presents crude oil reserves at 9:30, and at ½ past midnight, Japan’s market PMI and Australia’s gross domestic product.

Monday, December 3, 2018

Asia

They’re calling it a tariffs war détente, after trump and xi ended their Sunday night dinner with a handshake. Trump’s January 1st hike has been put on hold, and China has agreed to open up markets to US agricultural, energy and industrial products, and even reduce taxes on US cars. The news was enough to propel Asian indices up – 2½% in Hong Kong, a percent point 5 in Tokyo and 3¼ in Shenzhen. The news, though failed to influence China’s PMIs, which were down in November – 50 for the manufacturing sector and 53.9 for the rest. This morning’s NON official Caixin number, on the other hand, shows manufacturing UP by a 1/10. Japan’s unemployment was up 0.1% in October, but industrial production expanded by nearly 3, following September’s ½% contraction.

 

US

US markets closed with a muted rise on Friday, but in light of the Xi-Trump handshake, index futures opened the week with an impressive bull gap – 400 points for the dow jones, 140 for the Nasdaq. The dollar took a corresponding dive, though not as dramatic, but losing 60 cents overnight. And Canada’s annualized GDP for Q3 has been downgraded from 2.9% to a level 2.

 

Europe

European data ending last week was mixed, with consumer inflation mainly stable but down a click for the zone. Retail sales in German continue contracting by a 1/3% month on month, but the yearly figure for October jumped to a positive 5%.

 

Commodities

While we wait for the market to respond to news that Qatar is leaving OPEC, Oil is up on the Russia Saudi agreement to extend output management into the coming year. But a production cut of up to a million barrels has already been priced in. Thus in spite of a 2 rig addition to the baker hughes count, oil jumped a $2 gap overnight and is currently consolidating upwards. Also, Alberta PM Rachel Notley is forcing oil companies to cut production by 9% in order to increase prices. Canada is the world’s 4th largest oil producer, and that could add to an already sour relationship with the neighbour down south. Gold continues mirroring the US dollar, adding $11 per troy ounce since dinnertime yesterday. The mid term outlook though is still neutral and commercial, large and small trader commitments are still consolidated.

Events

Markit is reporting PMIs today from across the Eu and US, with the ISM joining the party this afternoon. Other than that, speeches from the FED’s Lael Brainard and Bob Kaplan, with Australia’s interest rates at 3:30 tomorrow morning.

Thursday, November 29, 2018

US

Not a good day for the dollar yesterday, as it lost 80 cents on extremely weak economic data. October’s trade deficit increased by a billion and a ¼, consumption fell by a 1/10th%, new home sales contracted by 9% and the Richmond manufacturing index is down a point. Mortgage applications rose by 5 ½% providing at least one glimmer of hope, but then Fed head Jerome Powell drove the spike further in at his speech last night, casting a shadow over a December interest rate hike. The result – a steep dip in the dollar that, however, though, indexes are up nicely – the Nasdaq nearly 3% and the Dow, 2.5.

Europe

The pound rose in the Asian session after Yesterday’s Bank of England press conference had a unified message for brits: Brexit is bad for the economy, but – said governor carney – the agreement thatched together by Theresa May provides the best possible conditions for a very bad event. Most European indexes last night closed marginally up, the DAX and FTSE down point 9 and point 18 of a percent. This is after Germany posed some pessimistic consumer confidence in the morning followed by the 10year bond auction which concurred with a drop from 42% yields to 34. And all of this over a spat between the US and. …

Asia

… China, where indexes closed in the red this morning. Asian stocks had been following the US as the day began, but the mood turned sour as the day drew to a close, erasing all the day’s gains. In Japan Retail trade increased by a welcome 3.5%, and the Nikkei gained about a 1/3% overnight; while New Zealand’s business activity outlook for November is up 2 clicks to 7.6%

Commodities

Gold last night rose perfectly in tandem with the dollar drop at noon New York time, then opened in Asia with a $6 bull gap. The metal is right now well above its mid-term moving averages and our oh-so-gradual 3-month up trend is still in place. Oil, despite the EIA’s 3.6 mn barrel increase, reversed losses in the Asian session, but continues bouncing around the 50 and a ½ level.   

Events

At 8 this morning we’ll be having ECB president Draghi addressing the global finance forum in Frankfurt and at 7 tonight, we’ll have the minutes of the US’s fed meeting last month. In between, unemployment in Germany at 5 to 9 followed by mortgages and credit from the UK at 9:30. The Eu’s confidence measures will be in at 10, and spending, income and jobless claims in the US at 3. Unemployment, CPIs and industry in Japan is in at 10 to midnight and China’s PMIs at 1 tomorrow morning.

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Asia

Asian markets were green this morning, the Shenzhen composite a percent 44 and the Nikkei up a percent point 11 on consumer product companies. In Australia construction work contracted by 2.8% after the year’s 2nd quarter, which registered a 1.6% increase.

Europe

European benchmarks all closed in the red yesterday. Consumer confidence in both France and Italy is down 2 to 3 points each so far this November, while with a drop from 10.6 to 10.4, Germany’s hopes for December are not much better. Shop prices in the UK advanced by 1/10th of a % erasing half of October’s loss.

US

The US dollar continues its upward trend on Trump’s promise to add Chinese tariffs come January 11st. We could be looking at a 3rd consecutive quarter of dollar gains unless continuing woes from US indexes curb the FED’s enthusiasm this coming December. Yesterday’s equities surge has tapered off somewhat, as facebook pressures the NASDAQ down to a paltry 1/100th% of an increase, the S&P up a 1/3 and the DOW point 44. The redbook index is up a percent and a ½ year on year, but house prices were down to 5.1%  in September.

 

Commodities

Oil reacted POSITIVELY to yesterday’s API addition of 3.5 mn barrels. Still, we’re not seeing any major break out of its continuing drop as demand continues to fall and hopes on an OPEC cutback remain slim. Gold continues south on dollar strength, and Bitcoin regained some of the week’s losses as an almost definite support level seems to be forming somewhere in the 3600 region – that’s after a double bottom recorded over the past 3 days.

Events

Ahead today Italy’s producer inflation measure is at 9am gmt. Then mortgage applications in the US at noon followed by the nation’s GDP, inventories and consumption measures at 1:30. At 3:30 the EIA will either confirm yesteray’s API numbers or not, and at 10 to midnight, Japanese foreign investments and retail trade. Jerome Powell’s speech at 5 PM is also something to keep an eye on.

Tuesday, November 27, 2018

Asia

Coming on the back of news that Jack Ma is a book carrying member of the Communist party, Chinese indexes this morning are all down between a ¼ and a ½%, with the Nikkei up point 8, and australia’s S&P a full percent on energy gains. Buut perhaps the biggest news is Beijing’s opening up of its finance sector with the approval of German insurer Allianz SE for business on the mainland. This comes on the heels of similar decisions vis-à-vis American express, United technologies and aircraft parts maker Rockwell Collins.  

Europe

The pound yesterday expressed some short-term optimism after the EU approved its Brexit deal with Britain. Holland’s mark Rutte warned the UK parliament not to vote against the deal, as the union had no intention of reopening negotiations. Meanwhile, the Euro also seemed to be shrugging off weak german confidence data in which all 3 measures fell about a point each. Still, European benchmarks managed to eke out impressive results yesterday, the DAX adding nearly a percent and a ½, and Italy’s FTSE nearly 3. ECB president Draghi told the European parliament that his bank would begin phasing out quantitative easing in December, come what may.

US

He USD continues on its 2-month upward trend despite what seems to be difficulty breaking the $97 mark. Indexes finally broke into positive territory, with the Nasdaq leading on a 2% increase followed closely by the dow and S&P. Trump meets China’s Xi on Friday, but not before expressing pessimism in the form of more tariffs expected on January 1st. Yesterday’s dallas manufacturing business index dropped by nearly half to 17.6 on October’s 29.4. And coming on the heels of last week’s weak data, an additional interest rate hike in December seems to be getting more and more distant.

Commodities

With OPEC members meeting in Vienna this week, oil yesterday interrupted its downward trend, hitting the 52 mark before erasing half those gains. And in cryptos, we’re seeing about700,000 bitcoin miners closing down in the past couple of weeks due to a decline in value and hashrate.

Events

Following French confidence and producer price measures, we have business confidence from Italy at 9 am GMT, followed by the Redbook index from the US at 5 to 2. House prices will be in 5 minutes later, and fed members Evans, George and Bostic speak tonight. The API is in at 9:30, and UK shop prices and Australian construction at a half past midnight.

Thursday, November 22, 2018

 It’s Thursday November 22 and this is the market view as we slip into a quiet thanksgiving weekend. We have the OECD downgrading its global growth index to 3.5%  from May’s 3.7 projection.

Asia

Japanese consumer inflation rose a tad in October to 1.4%, while foreign investments decreased  by 180 bn yen – that’s after October’s 362 bn yen increase. Despite a strengthening yen, the Nikkei was one of the few benchmarks to rise overnight, with China’s Shanghai composite down a ¼%.

Europe

More Brexit friction this morning, this time from an unexpected quarter – Spain. The country warns it will veto the bill if the deal extends to Gibraltar, which is a British holding on the Iberian peninsula. Public sector borrowing is up in the UK to 7.95bn pounds – well exceeding expectations. Across the continent, equities continue reacting to the week’s US stocks rout led by the FTSe’s point 7-2% drop.

US

US markets yesterday rebounded, with technology shares pushing the Nasdaq up by nearly an entire percent. Mortgage applications retreated again in November as did durable goods, while jobless claims increased well beyond expectations, and Home sales surprisingly rose. The Reuters Michigan consumer sentiment index is at a 3-month low, and with markets closed for thanksgiving, reactions will only be felt on Monday.

Commodities

Last night, the EIA reported a 116 thousand barrel drawdown from the Cushing reservoirs, but that wasn’t enough to curb the continuing downtrend beyond a slight bleep at the actual moment of the release. Prices continue south, at least until next month’s OPEC meeting, where hopes are that production cuts will be agreed upon. Gold continues its week-long rise crossing 12-30 momentarily during the Asian session as the us dollar relaxes into a sideways trend.

Events

Ahead today, the ECB’s policy meeting minutes are in at noon and a half, followed by consumer confidence at 3. Australia reports PMIs at 10, and japan – at a half past midnight.

 

 

Tuesday, November 21, 2018

Asia

With days to go before the Trump Xi summit at the G20, the US trade representative yesterday published a 50-page outline of ongoing Chinese intellectual property theft. Yesterday’s contagion of Asian markets, by US equity freefall seems to have abated. Most indexes closed in the green led by the Hang Seng’s ½% increase. Australia,s S&P, New Zealand’s Dow Jones, and the Nikkei all closed down. Japan’s industrial activity measure this morning shows a.9% contraction for September, while Australia’s leading index in October increased by 1/10 of a %. The central banks meeting minutes overnight has economic growth upped to 3 ½% for the coming year, but they’re keeping their present 1.5% interest rate for now.

Europe

European indexes are more optimistic this morning, all up in the ¾% plus region. Unemployment surprised to the upside in France in October, falling a tenth to 5.3%, while in the UK industrial orders increased to 10 from last month’s 6 point contraction. The pound continues to meander around the 1-28 level as investors wait for some kind of indication on Teresa May’s future and that of Brexit. While in Italy, another developing drama may be averted as deputy premiere salvini says his colleagues might be able to revise their budget deficit by lowering social benefit expenses. The threat is that otherwise the European commission may open procedures to outlaw that nation’s entire budget proposal.

US

The US dollar lost some of yesterday’s upward momentum as the index bloodbath took a slight rest during the Asian session. Yesterday’s major loser was the Dow, at minus 2.2%, this following a 1/5% reduction in building permits for October but a tenth point increase in the Redbook index. According to Bloombeerg, though, nothing seems to be on the horizon to support any optimism, and most pundits agree that the bear is upon us.

 

Commodities

Yesterday’s plunge in oil prices was quashed after the APi reported a welcome 1.6 mn barrel reduction in crude inventories. Add to that Trump saying he wouldn’t punish the Saudis for murdering a journalist, thereby quashing fears of supply disruptions. Gold yesterday added $5 to the troy ounce as investors ran for cover in light of the equities tumble.

Events

Still ahead today are mortgate applications, jobless claims and the Michigan consumers sentiment index from the US. At 1:30 – wholesale sales in Canada, and at 5 – the EIA’s crude stocks change. Finally, at 30 to midnight, Japan produces inflation and investment numbers.

 

Tuesday, November 20, 2018

Good morning, 

Asia

We’re waking up this morning to red nearly across the board, with the Hang seng down 1.9% and the Shenzhen composite down 2.8. Chinese regulators are launching investigations on price fixing against Samsung, Micron and more non-local companies. Down south in Australia, last night’s RBA minutes show confidence, with consumption growing at around the 3% target rate and unemployment down a ¼ to 4.75%. Inflation targets are up a bit and non-mining sectors not as strong as expected. Also, residential housing is retreating. But GDP, wages  and business investments are on the rise, and policy remains stable.

Europe

Contrasting November’s slow release of air from the UK housing bubble, The European Union yesterday released its construction output figures – up 2% in September following a ½% drop the month before. Unemployment in France pleased pundits who expected an increase. It’s holding steady at 9.1%. And Germany’s producers price index fell to 0.3% for October from 0.5 in September. We’re also seeing an impressive billion point 3 increase in Switzerland’s trade surplus to 3.75 in October. European stocks pushed indexes south, but by less than a percent each.

US

US benchmarks also ended down last night led by the Nasdaq’s whopping 3% drop. The National Home builders association yesterday reported a 4-year record decline in business confidence – down 7 points to 60  in October. At fault – rising prices and interest rates that’s slowing down buying.

Commodities

With the Saudi royal house in disarray and Irani backed Houthis in Yemen agreeing to a ceasefire, oil added nearly $2 on the barrel yesterday before levelling off into a slight downward incline for the Asian session. Gold, meanwhile began the session with a dip before resuming its measured upward trend, bring the winning streak into day 4..

Events

UK inflation will be on everyone’s mind at 10 this morning, with industrial trends at 11. We’ll then return to the US housing sector at 1:30, while the API will report oil reserves at half past 9. Westpac’s index for Australia will be in at 30 to midnight and Japan’s industry activity at 4:30.

We’ll be back again tomorrow. Until then – have a wonderful trading day.

 

Monday, November 19, 2018

Good morning, and welcome to sharptrader. We’re celebrating our brand new academy site, so don’t forget to check it out. Meanwhile, here’s this week’s first market view.

US

Markets have been slightly optimistic since US president trump’s Friday comments that expect a trade deal with China eventually. More gloom though was evinced when vice pence later said there would be no end to tariffs until China changes its ways. The dow on Friday closed up ½%, the S&P ¼ and the Nasdaq lost .15 of a %. Industrial production fell by half to 1/10th% – all this as Thursday’s jobless claims increase still casts a slight shadow.

Asia

In Asia overnight, we’re seeing a merchandise trade DEFICIT in Japan of nearly 450bn yen, after September;s 131bn surplus. Central bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda this morning warned that regional banks were losing money. Kuroda was addressing the Eurogroup economic forum in Paris on the topic of declining and aging populations – something Japan is unwilling to address by increasing immigration quotas. Indeed, Kuroda didn’t even MENTION his country’s abysmal record on that topic.

Europe

The Eurozone published its highest CPIs since December 2012 on Friday. ALSO speaking at Eurogroup, ECB head Mario Draghi admitted that economic growth was slowing, but not to the point that has him worried as yet. House prices in the UK contracted in November by 1.7% month on month, as the final destiny of Brexit approaches towards the end of this week. The pound overnight resumed an upward haul, but as of this morning it has yet to regain half of Thursday’s dramatic plunge.

Commodities

In commodities, oil showed a slight drop after Friday’s baker hughes report – a 2 rig increase which was nowhere near as dramatic as last week’s 14. And gold, which performed a $20 jump on Friday, has erased half of those gains, especially in Asia overnight.

Events

Today’s calendar is rather sparse. More numbers from the EU at 10 am GMT, and US housing at 3 PM. At a half past midnight we’ll be getting the minutes of Australia’s recent central bank meeting and at 2 – Japan’s monetary policy statement.
We’ll be back again tomorrow. Enjoy and good trading.

Thursday, November 15, 2018

Good morning, and welcome to Market View. It’s Thursday, November 15th.

Europe

We have a deal, says the UK government, unless parliament rules it out, after Theresa May’s Brexit agreement with the EU was approved yesterday. 2 ministers have reportedly resigned, and European indexes are suffering cloudy futures. The agreement has border checks for goods crossing from England to Northern Ireland and the European court of justice controlling arbitration during the 2-year transition period. Retail prices grew by 1/10%, producer inflation by 1/3 and the consumer price index remained steady at 0.1% in October. Across the waters, European GDP grew by a paltry 1/5 % in Q3 while industrial production contracted by a 1/3% month-on-month. Germany’s GDP crashed, contracting for the first time in 3 years by3.2% for the quarter.

US

Consumer inflation in the US added 1/5% climbing by 2.5% year on year, but mortgage applications dropped to an 18-year low by 3.2%. Fed head Jerome Powell yesterday told members of the Dallas central bank that he had no intention of changing the gradual interest rate increase policy of his bank, and that he was content with the state of the economy.

Asia

Meanwhile, China delivered a hand-written response to US reform demands, this ahead of the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting at the G-20 meeting in Argentina. According to Bloomberg, there is little mention of intellectual property threat and the concessions proposed on equities and fiscal matters fall short of being what the Americans define as substantial. Further south, Australia’s unemployment remains steady at 5%, while consumer inflation fell to 3.6% for November. While in Japan foreign investments grew by 100 bn yen after contracting by 356bn the month before, while housing loans added 2.4% in Q3

Commodities

Gold during the Asian session added $15 per troy ounce after exploring the sub-12-00 domain throughout the day; and oil peaked at 57 and a bit despite the API’s 8.8-million-barrel increase, before dropping again to the mid 56’ess.

Events

Coming back to the UK, in a couple of hours, we’ll be getting retail sales data with Europe’s trade balance in at 10. US retail sales, jobless claims and import/export prices will be in at 1:30 PM, and New Zealand’s business PMI at 9:30.

We’ll be back tomorrow with more economic news. Until then, happy trading. 

 

Wednesday, November 14, 2018

Good morning,

 

Asia

The Yen overnight lost another .04% after the nation posted a 0.3% reduction in GDP for Q3, while industrial production beat expectations with a mere ½% drop in September. In China, retail sales are down by more than a percent, while industrial production and fixed asset investments increased by 5.9 and 5.7% respectively. Meanwhile, Australian consumers are showing optimism, as last night’s Westpac index nearly tripled this month over October.

Europe

In the UK, the pound surged by over a /13% on news that of an agreed upon Brexit deal. The 2 sides have reportedly ironed out differences on the hard Irish border issue, and now the paper needs to be approved by the house of commons. Earnings ALSO pushed the currency with a .1% rise to 3.2 in September (that’s its highest level since the 2008 meltdown) but unemployment is up by a 1/10 to 4.1%. Along the continent, news isn’t as good, with economic sentiment down to minus 22 in the EU and minus 24.1 in Germany – the latter beating expectations, however, while consumer inflation remains steady at 2.4% year-on-year.

 

US

Finally reacting to the news, US business optimism fell in October to 107.4, while yesterday’s budget statement showing a $100bn deficit, following last month’s 119bn surplus. Equities continue south as oil prices continue to drop, threatening the feasibility of shale production. Weighing on markets yesterday were Amazon and Apple stocks, the latter hit by sales pessimism to the tune of a 5% share drop in a single day. General electric lost nearly 7%, yesterday, which translates to about $5bn in market cap

 

Commodities

Gold continues sideways this morning above the 12-00 mark on dollar weakness and continued red in US equities.

And crude oil for now remains steady in the 55-30 region.

Events

Still ahead today, Britain’s producer and consumer inflation figures plus retail prices at 9:30 GMT. That’ll be followed a half hour later by the EU’s GDP, industrial production and employment change. At 1:30 – CPIs and the Redbook index from the US, and at 9:30, the APi’s weekly crude oil inventories. – we’re a day late due to Monday’s Veteran’s Day holiday in the US. Foreign investment from japan is in at 10 to midnight, and at ½ past the following morning – Australian employment data.

Don’t forget to call your account manager for advice and assistance. And don’t forget to have a great trading day.

 

Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Good morning, it’s Tuesday November 13 and this is sharptrader.

Asia

Chinese indicators closed up this morning led by the Shenzhen’s 1.7% increase. News in Japan was not as good, the Nikkei down 2.11% and the yen reacting downward on a 1.1% reduction in machine tool orders. That’s its first drop since November 2016.

Europe

The pound performed a near dead-man’s bounce last night after opening with a 60 pip bear gap yesterday. Consumers are cutting down spending iin the UK, according to Visa’s credit report this morning. Hard Brexit fear sustain, while across the channel concerns over Italy’s budget deficit join an economic slowdown threatening the Euro as it threatens the 1-12-00 mark.

US

The US Dollar continues to strengthen, hitting its highest since June last year and continuing to threaten dependant emerging markets. Stocks meanwhile are down, the Nasdaq printing a 2.8% loss yesterday as a New York financial consultancy reports that Wall Street professionals are in for a 20% increase in bonuses this year over 2017. And as we move into commodities, the EIA reported yesterday in its annual report that US shale production will push that nation’s output to a half of the world’s total by 2025.

Commodities

In spite of that, Oil lost yesterday’s gains during the Asian session after adding a dollar and a ½. The culprit: Saudi Arabia’s announcement it was cutting production next month. This continues the 6-week downward trend since the liquid gold topped 76 in October. And the HARDER metal continues down on a strengthening dollar. This morning finds gold still struggling in its 3-month support region after bouncing off of the 12-00 mark last night.

Events

Today’s events scene begins at 9:30 GMT with England’s unemployment figures for September. That’s followed by german economic sentiment at 10 and business optimism from the US at 11. At 9 PM the US treasury releases its monthly budget statement, and at 11:50 – Japan’s GDP.

We’ll be back tomorrow with more. See you then.

Monday, October 8, 2018

Good morning, and welcome to our Monday edition market view.

Asia

With Columbus day in the US, and National Health sports day in Japan coming on the heels of last week’s Chinese bank holiday, markets are opening relatively quietly, but all mainly deep in the red. We’re seeing an excellent PMI this morning from the government’s Caixin service, but last week’s spy-chip revelations could have a lasting impact on China’s high-tech export industry. Western manufacturers have discovered that boards manufactured in China contain a chip that creates a doorway into their companies and even defence equipment. Also, the nation’s central bank announced yesterday that it would once again cut its required reserve ratio, in effect pumping another trillion plus yuans into trade-war infested markets.

Europe

Despite an apparent agreement on Italy’s budget deficit ratio, this morning we’re seeing the commission warning of a Greece-style crisis. Senior officials are claiming that the Italians will be in breach of EU fiscal regulations should the 2.1% ratio – down from 2.4 – be ratified. For now, Italians seem content to remain within the Euro-zone, but with a populist party in power, an exit is not unforeseeable. Germany’s industrial production contracted another 0.3% in August month on month, and we’re expecting a slight drop in both EU investor confidence and UK like-for-like retail sales.

US

The US dollar surge came to an end on Friday after the NFP brought in precisely HALF the number of jobs expected – 135k instead of 270. Still, unemployment dropped another 2 ticks to 3.7% – a 50 year low – and consumer confidence rose by $4 bn  to 20 and a bit. We’re expecting the dollar to continue ranging for the next month or so until mid-term elections decide if the US ends up with another  divided congress, or whether the Kavanaugh scandal will prompt a democrat take-over.

Commodities

Oil continues to suffer from last week’s profit-taking, despite a 2-rig reduction in the baker hughes count, Friday. It’s now down nearly $3 from Thursday’s $77 high. For now, it seems that Saudi Arabia has agreed to top off the Iranian shortfall. And gold in the Asian session was drummed back down to its short term range, at 11-99 and 99 cents.

That’s it for this morning. Have a great trading day, and don’t forget to call your broker – it’s what he’s there for.

 

Thursday, October 4, 2018

Good morning and welcome to sharptrader. It’s Thursday and we’re here with another market view.

Europe

The spotlight is still on Italy, whose budget is pressuring the entire continent downward. With the Eu trying to convince Italy to cut its CURRENT budget deficit of 1.6%, it stands to reason that nobody’s going to approve the proposed 2.4% of GDP. Meanwhile, Italy’s services PMI in September added half a point beyond expectations to 53.3, while yesterday’s composite and services figures for Germany and the Eu came in red. Yesterday’s DAX lost point 42 of a % and the Eurostoxx point 7-3.  The FTSE and CAC managed a ½% gain, but both the euro and pound continue fighting an uphill battle against the US dollar downwards. The pound is especially fragile following Theresa may’s performance on yesterday.

US

Us growth is steamrolling forward, last night’s ISM figures at a 21-year high of 61 & a ½. The new orders sub-component shows a healthy increase in demand, business is up and so is employment. Markit’s PMIs also came in a half point higher than expected; but mortgage applications came in at a flat 0. Meanwhile, JP Morgan chase analysts accuse FED head Jerome Powell of costing US equities about a trillion and a ½ dollars thanks to his worrisome speeches on the economy.

Asia

The US’s galloping dollar comes at the expense of its Japanese counterpart, the yen at an 11-month low, for the moment. The Bank of Japan’s periodical market survey reflects frustration at reaching a 2% inflation goal, following yesterday’s 1.6 point miss of the expected September services PMI. Up next – trade talks with trump, basking in the success of his nafta-2 talks with Canada and Mexico.

Commodities

In oil markets, last night’s 8 mn barrel inventories growth caused an understated ripple, forcing prices down by ½ a dollar, following the dollar.80 spike after Tuesday’s API report. With prices at a 4-year high, US’s sanctions on Iranian output, alongside OPEC’s refusal to plug the gap, still has the bulls by the horns.

Events

Most important data today will be coming from the US from noon and a half – that’s jobless claims followed by factory orders. Japan’s household Spending data will be in at 30 to midnight and retail sales from Australia – an hour later.

Come back tomorrow for our Friday edition. And in the meantime – have a great trading day.

Tuesday, October 2, 2018

Good morning and welcome to Sharptrader. Here’s the market view for Tuesday October 2nd.

Europe

Markets are expressing some optimism so far this week, as Brexit seems to be offering a compromise and the EU has yet to respond to Italy’s budget deficit. Helping things along was yesterday’s unemployment number from the roman capital – a ½% drop to 9.7%, which helped edge the zone’s total down a 1/10 of a % to 8.1. Manufacturing PMIs were not much to write home about, except in Britain, where the index rose by point 8 of a % alongside mortgage approvals – also a ½ kilo increase to 66 ½ K, and – this morning – housing prices – a 0.3$ increase month-on month in September which follows last month’s ½% drop. The pound spiked momentarily yesterday as rumours spread of a Brexit compromise on the Irish border question. The currency is back into an easy bear.

US

US data yesterday came in mostly red, the ISM’s manufacturing PMI down a point and a half to 59.8 and construction spending down by a half to 0.1%. The US dollar continues upwards on the basis of Sunday’s new NAFTA agreement. So far, the word innovation is not on anyone’s lips. Most of the concessions on both the US and Canadian side were expected – medical patents, rules of origin and dairy markets have been eased. The Canadian dollar was less egregious overnight, after performing a pretty impressive 160 pip jump on Monday. Next on the agenda: US-Europe trade disputes. At stake – about one trillion dollars of trade being threatened by the US demand for upholding sanctions against Iran, which Europe is tyring to resist.

Asia

With china still on vacation, Australia overnight chose to maintain its 1.5% interest rate, and consumer confidence in Japan came in this morning at 43.4 – a 1/10 increase on August. The New York Times on Friday reported that the Chinese government has sent memos to journalists aimed at underplaying any economic troubles. The nation’s stock markets are at a 4-year low, industrial profits are falling, and homeowners are protesting the drop in real estate values.

Commodities

Oil overnight surged by another 3% to 75-60 this morning, with Brent easing off at the 85 mark. And gold is back into an upward trend whose future most probably depends on today’s US data and rising US-china tensions that seem to be infiltrating into security matters. China yesterday cancelled a meeting with US military officials and warships in the south china see are getting a tad aggressive.

Events

Still ahead today, construction in the UK at 8:30 GMT followed at 9 by the eurozone’s producer price index for august. The Redbook is in at 5 to 1 and the API’s oil count at 8:30 tonight. At 1 am, we’ll be seeing Japan’s services PMI and at 1:30 building permits in Australia.

We’ll see you again tomorrow, same place, same time. happy trading. 

 

Monday, October 1 , 2018

Good morning. It’s Monday October 1st and here’s the market view from SharpTrader.

Asia

Chinese markets are on holiday this morning after the nation’s bureau of statistics on Sunday saw manufacturing plummet by half a point. Bloomberg reports that officials are promising tax cuts and infrastructure spending to offset the effects of trade tensions and rising unemployment. Japan’s Tankan index also fell by 2 points, while the Nikkei count is down only a half. the result – a 1/3% drop in the Nikkei PMI with a corresponding rise in this morning Nikkei 225.

Europe

After the poor performance of UK GDP and EuroZone PMIs, Friday’s equities ended in the red throughout the region led by Italy’s FTSE index – down 3.7%. The euro continued downwards after the Italian government ratified a 2.4% budget deficit – way above the EU’s limit. Meanwhile, Princeton’s Ashoka Modi writing in Marketwatch says that the ECB’s bond buying program is a farce and that growth in the union is slowing. He accuses ECB president Mario Draghi of untruthful rhetoric and says the zone’s monetary leadership are way behind the US and Asian markets in withdrawing stimulus.

Americas

In the americas nafta is dead, and it’s long live the US Mexico Canada agreement – USMCA. The new multilateral trade agreement was agreed upon towards midnight last night and it’s supposed to be signed in November. All 3 coins gained on the release, after Canada’s PM Trudeau said it was a good day for canada, which is expected to open 3.5% of its dairy market to the US. Last week ended with the chicago and michigan indexes both down, and spending indexes also in the red.

Commodities

With oil still steadily rising, Saudi Arabia has put on hold, for now, its planned $200 bn solar power plans. The Saudi government said it would be presenting a broader strategy for renewable energy later this month.

Shares

in equities, Of course the BIG news is Elon musk’s settlement with the securities exchange commission that he would step down as chairman while retaining his position as company CEO. After floating rumors of a buyback on Tesla stocks, musk will still have to pay a $40mn fine to settle fraud charges. Tesla is on the verge of profitability, musk told employees, just ahead of yesterday’s end to the year’s 3rd quarter. And across the seas nearly a month after declaring he was retiring, Alibaba’s Jack Ma has already surrendered ownership in the conglomerate’s Chinese licensed entities.

Events

After Germany report of retail figures this morning, we have Markit’s manufacturing PMIs coming in throughout the day interspersed with unemployment from italy at 8 am GMT and mortgages and consumer credit from the UK at 8:30. Overnight, New Zealand reports inflation and at 4:30 tomorrow morning – Australia’s interest rate decision.

We’ll see you again later tomorrow. Have a great trading week.

Friday, September 28, 2018

Good morning and welcome to the end of another week of market views. It’s Friday September 28, and we’re Sharptrader.

Asia

A rally yesterday across the Asian equities board has the Australian and New Zealand Dollar’s up this morning. The optimism was triggered by reports that global liquidity provider, MSCI was planning to increase its investments in Chinese A-shares – this despite the Asian Development bank’s lowering of China’s growth projections by a 1/10 of a % to 6.3. Japan’s ShinzoAbe, after meeting with US president trump, informed reporters that there was no free trade agreement in the works – only a lesser form on goods.

Europe

European indexes also ended mostly up last night, the euro down on Italy’s intention to push through a higher budgetary deficit to fund election promises. Across the Union, confidence measures were down yesterday, except in Italy, where both business and consumer sentiment increased by about a point each. Germany’s CPIs came in better than expected, 2.3% year on year for September. And Jeremy Corbin is in Brussels, begging for an orderly Brexit deal for the sake of British jobs and living standards.

N. America

The dollar continues to strengthen on Wednesday’s FOMC policy announcement. We’re expecting another hike in December and at least 3 more in 2019. The unexpected hawkishness accompanied the 3.3% increase in GDP, also saw all 3 major indexes in the green at the end of trading yesterday. Inventories and home sales were down and the goods trade deficit increased; however, jobless claims and personal consumption rose. The WTO yesterday warned that escalating trade tensions could lower global trade volumes in 2018 from 4.4% to 3.9.

Commodities

Oil this morning remains in an uptrend, WTI at 72.26 and Brent just starting to resist at 81.41. And gold is still reeling from Wednesday’s FOMC sentiments – resolutely below 11-88. Bitcoin took a $300 leap up yesterday after J.P.Morgan announced the world’s largest blockchain application that enables cross-border payments. The new Quorum blockchain actually uses ethereum

Events

Still ahead, CPIs from france and GDP from spain towards 7 am gmt.later in the day, CPIs from Italy and the eu. At 8, we’ll hear about unemployment in germany followed by the UK’s GDP figures for Q2 and Spain’s at 10. The us begins reporting at noon and a 1/2 with personal consumption followed by Chicago’s PMI. Finally, Baker Hughes’ rig count is at 5.

 

We’ll be back again Monday to start you off on another week of market views. Have a lovely weekend.

Thursday, September 27, 2018

Good morning, The day’s beginning in the red, the world has recovered from trump’s un speech and we’re here for another market view from sharptrader.

Asia

All major Asian indexes closed in the red this morning, with the yen gathering strength throughout the session. Resistance at 89-28 is mainly holding for now, but the mood is sombre. Yesterday, the Asian development bank warned that regional growth could be hampered by disrupted supply chains, this before trump’s tariffs have even been factored in. And speaking of tariffs, China overnight announced it would be lowering tariffs on a series of imports by about 2%.

Europe

Both the euro and the pound sterling are in freefall this morning, having lost ½ a % since trading began. And about 90 pips since yesterday’s close. Mortgage approvals in the UK eased by 300K, but german consumer confidence is up a 1/10 of a point. More news in Europe is coming from Italy, this morning, where consumer and business confidence surprised to the upside and the deficit is expected to come in just below the EU’s 3% limit. 

US

Home sales in the US rebounded month on month by 3/5% in August, but the number missed analyst targets by about a thousand units. Other than that, the FED raised interest rates by a ¼%, as expected, giving the dollar a long-hoped for boost of about 60 cents on the dollar index. The currency soared through the $94 resistance and is currently contemplating 94-20. Meanwhile, Donald trump says he may reach out to China’s Xi jingping, but ruled out a 1-on-1 with canada’s Justine Trudeau.

Commodities

Despite a 1.8mn barrel increase in oil stocks, the commodity continues rising – 50 cents on the EIA’s pronouncement last night. And gold once again reversed its downtrend during the Asian session. It’s currently just above the 12-00 handle and slowly rising.

Events

We’re getting Italy’s producer inflation and the EU’s sentiment markers as we go to air right now. With CPIs from Germany expected at noon. At ½ past noon, the US will blitz us with jobless claims, GDP, consumption and durable goods orders. Home sales in an hour and a half later. At 11:30 tonight, it’s japan’s turn to publish CPIs, employment, production, retail and investment data. And China’s kaishin manufacturing PMI will be in at a ¼ to 2 in the morning.

We’’ll be back again tomorrow morning. Till then, have a wonderful trading day.

 

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Good morning. Welcome to the market view from sharptrader, Wednesday September 26.

Asia

After Friday’s HKDollar surge, stocks on the Hang Seng continue to recover from Monday’s reaction. On Friday the dollar rose by a 15 year record. Meanwhile business confidence in New Zealand was up, but it’s still in negative terrotiry to the tune of 38 points – this, as last night’s trade deficit fell by ½ a bn dollars, but not enough to satisfy analysts.

Europe

European currencies remained steady overnight as Brexit recedes into the background after Benoit Coeure and Peter praet – both of the European central bank – failed to make headlines in their speeches yesterday. Stocks last night closed mostly in the green, led by the FTSe’s 2/3% increase – all mainly propped up by energy stocks..

US

With today’s rate hike already priced into the dollar, US equities continued downwards yesterday on oil-induced inflation and higher bond yields. Cas Shiller presented a 5.9% increase in home prices, down a percent-50 from June, and same store sales increased by a marginal 0.4%  to 5.8 year on year.

Commodities

Oil’s upward momentum was stymied last night when the American Petroleum Institute reported a 2.9mn barrel increase in inventories. Analysts are still bullish – at least until tonight’s EIA report. But optimism reigns – especially after Donald trump’s targeting of Iran in last night’s UN speech. As for gold – we’re still stuck in the 11-90 – 12-10 range – at least until tonight’s FOMC report. And bitcoin continues downwards despite a short-lived recovery last week. Yesterday Google lifted a ban on crypto advertising but said it was instating on certification from google to advertise within a specific geographical range.

 

Events

Still ahead today, mortgage approvals from the UK at 8:30, then from the US at 11. At 2:30, it’s the EIA’s turn to report on oil and at 6, the much awaited fed’s new interest rate. New Zealand ALSO presents an interest rate decision at 9 tonight, and overnight, OPEC meets to discuss production.

That’s it for now. Have a great trading day.

 

Tuesday, September 25, 2018

Good morning and welcome to Tuesday’s market view from sharptrader

Asia

Last night’s Bank of Japan policy report has the economy expanding moderately and annual inflation to rise above the 2% target unless US china friction increases. The Nikkei was the odd man out in last night’s negative closures thanks to a weakening Yen. It rose point 15 of a percent against a 2/3% loss for the shanghai and Shenzhen composites. Hong kong was down a percent point 62. And as US-Japan trade talks begin today, China’s commerce minister overnight said his government was considering zero tariffs on some products.

Europe

As Theresa may’s government gets ready for snap elections in November, Brexit minister Ra’ab remains confident a deal will come through. Meanwhile, more and more traders are shorting the pound, based on the latest CFTC reports, and yesterday’s CBI trends retreated to minus 1. Increasing the pressure, ECB hawkishness is raising expectations for an interest rate hike this month. Even Draghi is joining the chorus as inflation picks up. But, after Germany’s sentiment indexes ALSO declined yesterday for September and wholesale prices rose this morning, European indexes will have to work hard to recoup yesterday’s losses. These were led by the DAX’s 0.64% drop followed by the FTS’s point 4-2.

US

After trump signed the first negotiated trade agreement with south korea yesterday, the FOMC meeting tomorrow to determine its new interest rate. Analysts are expecting a tariff’s-induced slowdown in US growth as early as Q4. China is threatening to withdraw from talks, iran tensions are growing, and Brexit is getting messier – all contributing to a risk averse climate that’s driving up the dollar. Meanwhile, on the home front, Dalas’s manufacturing index was down 3 points and chicago’s national activity index remained flat at 0.18.

Commodities

Overnight, oil continued upwards as both Russia and Saudi Arabia ignore US president trump’s pleas for a production increase. 72 is WTI’s latest intraday support level, while gold is firmly parked above 12-03 at least until tomorrow’s FOMC meet.

Events

We’ll be hearing from several Eurobank officials throughout the day, peter prat at 1:30 PM GMT and benoit coeuree at 20 to 3. US house prices will be in at 1 and the API’s crude stocks at 8:30. At ¼ to 11, it’s new zealand’s trade balance, and the nation’s business confidence 2 hours later.

We’ll be back again tomorrow. Till then, happy trading. 

 

Thursday, September 20, 2018

Good morning, It’s Thursday and here’s the market view from sharptrader

Asia

Asian markets have been mostly ignoring trump’s latest round of trade tariffs against China, the shanghai composite down a 1/10 this morning, but the hang send and Nikkei following Europe and the US marginally up.  Although China is avoiding more aggressive solutions, such as boycotting US products and increasing the taxes on US companies operating on the mainland, it can easily up the ante by supporting local producers with more monetary stimulus and reducing corporate taxes. Southward bound, New Zealand presented its highest GDP estimate in 2 years for Q2. The whopping 2.8% increase pushed the dollar up by 40 pips within minutes of the announcement.

 

Europe

Britain’s inflation rose to a 6-month high in August, with retail prices up by nearly a percent, retail SALES up by a respectable 3.3, and july’s house prices by 3.1%. The pound itself has been relatively impervious to the latest Brexit developments, whether the failure of yesterday’s Austria meet to accept Theresa may’s chequers plan or whether her refusal to accept the EU;’s Irish border solution.

 

US

US indexes were mainly up yesterday, as New York’s state comptroller declared that Wall Street bankers got a 13% wage hike last year. The average wage now is over 420,000 – that’s the highest since the lehaman collapsed in 2008. Meanwhile, Housing starts are at a 3-month high, based yesterday’s 1.3mn figure for August. Mortgage applications increased by 1.6% after August’s 1.8% decline, but building permits declined by nearly 6%. The biggest gain in housing start, it’s interesting to note, is in multi-family construction – nearly 30%. Apparently, Americans are finding less and less reason to sit in their back yards or front porches.

 

Commodities

As the US dollar maintains a weak stance just above the 94 mark, gold continues to hesitantly climb towards the 12-10 region. And oil is responding to last night’s EIA report with another dollar-50 jump to above the 71 mark, even though last night’s drawdown was less than expected.

Events

Still ahead today – jobless claims from the US at 2pm GMT along with European consumer confidence. At 30 minutes to midnight, japan will report CPIs and foreign investments; and at 3 am tomorrow morning, New Zealand’s credit card spending.

We’ll be back tomorrow – till then, happy trading. 

 

Monday, September 17, 2018

Good morning, and welcome to another week of market views. I’m barry sadovsky and this is sharptrader.

Asia

Chinese indexes are down this morning as it seems quite likely that Donald trump’s tariffs on another $200bn of Chinese goods are a done thing. Optimism DOES glimmer in the form of a UN meeting tomorrow and the G20 in November, where Chinese and US counterparts are expected to talk on the sidelines. Meanwhile, house prices in China increased by 7%, a 2-year high that’s up from July’s 5.8. In Japan, industrial production Friday morning declined by 0.2% in July month-on-month, and the drop in the yen has the Nikkei up by 1.2%.

Europe

After Thursday’s 70 pip bull gap, the swiss franc hit a snag after credit suise was called out by international monitors over its failure to fight corruption and money laundering. Switzerland’s financial markets regulator, FINMA, has decided to install an independent monitor to oversee the bank’s compliance. And after Turkey hiked its interest rate from 17 to 24%, both the ECB and the bank of England stayed pat on Thursday, consolidating an upward trend in the pound, but breaking the newborn momentum in the Euro. The European central bank DID however mention in its policy report that it would start winding down its asset purchasing program next month, this as core inflation is expected to hit the 2% mark by 2020. PRESENT day  data is showing a narrowing of the eurozone’s trade surplus to 12bn euros in July.

 

US

The US dollar added some strength over the weekend despite quite mixed data on Friday. Retail sales fell to a 6-month low of 0.1%, industrial capacity at 78.1% just missed expectations and import prices declined by 0.6%. On the plus side, we have export prices up by 3.6% and production: 0.4%.    Expectations still abound for a rate hike by month’s end, and Canada is still deciding whether to join the NAFTA talks in light of a perceived softening of the US stance vis-à-vis China. .

Commodities

As trade talks optimism helped lift the dollar, gold forgot plans of recovering and is quite resolutely below the 12-00 mark again. Oil is back downward bound despite added Iranian sanctions, as the US tries to goad Russia into capping oil prices – this ahead of mid-term elections.

Events

At 9 this GMT morning the EU will be publishing consumer inflation. Then at noon and a half – new york’s empire state manufacturing index. Housing prices will be in from Australia at 1:30 tomorrow morning,

And we’ll be back again tomorrow, bright and early.

Have a great trading day.